The termination of the government guarantee on wholesale funding next month gives a strong signal that - as far as the Australian government is concerned - the financial crisis is over. But the move could pose new problems for financial services providers that reconfigured their products around the guarantee. Roger Bridges, head of fixed income at Tyndall/Suncorp, said that the withdrawal of the Wholesale Guarantee will not affect the majors [the big four banks] "too much" as they have largely "weaned" themselves off it. "However, the smaller banks are probably more reliant on it despite the cost. This may affect the price of lending to the SMEs which are already finding finance difficult to get." Where it can get potentially problematic is when banks and fund managers have to change the policies around cash-based savings, such as term deposits. "There is a $1 million threshold but how does this apply? The current fee-free $1 million threshold is based on per-depositor per institution. The question maybe around the term deposit products on the various platforms," he said. "These have been used to fund the banks. The lack of diversity in the assets was based on the fact that they were largely guaranteed by the government. Is this now true? Who is the depositor - is it the custodian or the individual? I am not sure of the answers to this yet," he said. Bridges suggests the way these products have been set up could change and, in some cases, transaction costs could go up. In addition, the lifting of the guarantee will also affect terms and conditions around capital-guaranteed funds, that may not necessarily be cash-based, as well as the likely revenues of mortgage funds. Mortgage funds and other non-guaranteed fixed income funds suffered massive outflows when the government introduced the guarantee - a trend that could soon reverse. Glenn Feben, head of fixed interest at Perennial, said the guarantee "was always going to be removed at some stage". "With investor risk appetite having recovered and the financal crisis passed, the government have judged, correctly in our view, that these borrowers have the necessary access to funding they require without needing the guarantee," he said. For example, recent debt issues have been done by the banks and QTC without using the guarantee. "The beneficiaries of this will be investors who will get the benefit of higher interest rates on debt issued by these institutions," he said, continuing, "Indirectly via their superannuation investments, this will benefit a large number of Australian investors." In October 2008, the Federal Government announced it would guarantee bank deposits offered by banks, credit unions and building societies for up to three years. Yesterday, however, Treasurer Wayne Swan said they would remove this guarantee on March 31 - just 16 months since the guarantee was introduced. |